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Op-Ed: The Blue Wave Is Still Cresting (Probably)

Rich Meagher | October 24, 2019

Topics: absentee ballots, Amanda Chase, Blue Wave, Commissioner of Revenue, Democratic Party of Virginia, General Assembly, Glen Sturtevant, kirk cox, Mark J. Matney, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, Siobhan Dunnavant, virginia election

As Virginia’s next election approaches, statewide trends are showing favor to Democratic candidates. Will they be able to gain control of the General Assembly?

There’s a pivotal election in Virginia next month (as usual). At stake: control of the state legislature, with Democrats trying to regain control of both houses for the first time in two decades.

This week, two seemingly unrelated news stories were published, both of which signal something important about this election.

First, the Virginia Mercury’s Mason Adams reported on a local race for an obscure county office in Christiansburg, a rural southwest part of the state. The GOP candidate for Washington County’s Commissioner of Revenue is proudly calling himself a “Trump Republican” — but what Trump has to do with collecting revenue in Southwest Virginia is hard to tell. 

Second, VCU’s Capital News Service reported on a significant increase in student absentee ballots compared to the last full General Assembly election in 2015.

What’s the takeaway? I think the Blue Wave is still real.

Democrats in Virginia have enjoyed strong wins in the last two elections, both in sweeping victories for statewide races and the House of Delegates in 2017, and strong showings in Congressional elections in 2018. This Blue Wave is part of a national trend that favors Democratic Party candidates all across the nation.

Predictions in politics are difficult, even foolhardy, to make. But after a tumultuous few months in Virginia politics, the same trends that made the Blue Wave possible seem to be reasserting dominance in VA.

Republicans were hopeful that the Governor’s blackface scandal would damage his party’s momentum. But the continued nationalization of local politics — again, a county Commissioner of Revenue candidate is calling himself a Trump guy — may be overwhelming any static from the Governor’s troubles.

Photo via Dr. Mark J. Matney for Commissioner of Revenue/Facebook

The race for the 10th Virginia Senate district is a good example. In a debate last week, Republican incumbent Glen Sturtevant made a big deal out of his opponent criticizing Northam before later taking campaign money from Northam’s PAC. I suspect that nobody cares; Northam’s approval rating is again approaching 50%.

On the other hand, Sturtevant earlier this year waded into a local school board zoning issue (so much for Republican focus on local control of schools). He distributed flyers titled “Save Our Neighborhood Schools” in a transparent attempt to stir up white resentment, earning a “segregationist” label to boot. This kind of desperate move does not indicate a comfortable front-runner.

Republicans are also hopeful that Virginia’s off-year elections, with no national or statewide races on the ballot, would help GOP candidates this fall; lower turnout tends to favor the demographics of Republican voters, even in a now-solidly-blue state like Virginia. But early trends, like the student absentees noted above, suggest that larger forces may counter the typical Democratic voter falloff. Anti-Trump enthusiasm remains a potent force, and it again could make the difference in 2019.

There are other trends that favor Democrats as well. First, the notoriously-disorganized Virginia Democrats seem more methodical than in previous years. For example, a few candidates in Henrico are sharing offices and resources for their campaigns, a sign that the infrastructure the party has constructed over the last two election cycles is functioning and able to help turnout. The off-cycle elections are again the only game in town, drawing the attention of the national parties and national news media. Maybe most importantly, money is flowing in again from national sources, especially to Democrats.

Of course, these trends may still not help individual Democratic candidates in tough races. Sheila Bynum-Coleman still has a long way to go to knock off the powerful Republican Speaker, Kirk Cox, in HD66. The race between Debra Rodman and Siobhan Dunnavant in SD12 seems like it will go down to the wire. Incumbent Senator Amanda Chase would probably have to start regularly kicking dogs to lose in her red district. (But who knows — based on her track record, anything is possible!) Democrats could end up with a strong majority of statewide votes, and still lose the numbers game for control of the legislature.

Still, the overall feel of this race is familiar. Unless something dramatic happens between now and November — and in Virginia, we can never count that out — the state should be thinking blue.

Note: Op-Eds are contributions from guest writers and do not reflect RVA Magazine editorial policy.

Top Photo by Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash

Candidate Debates Spotlight Closely Contested General Assembly Races

VCU CNS | October 14, 2019

Topics: candidate debates, Climate change, General Assembly, Ghazala Hashmi, Glen Sturtevant, gun control, kirk cox, LGBTQ rights, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, teacher salaries

With control of the General Assembly at stake, Republican incumbents Kirk Cox and Glen Sturtevant faced their Democratic challengers, Ghazala Hashmi and Sheila Bynum-Coleman, in contentious debates last week.

Republican incumbents fighting to keep seats in the 10th Senate and 66th House Districts debated Democratic challengers Wednesday night. Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, elected to the district in 1989, faced opponent Sheila Bynum-Coleman. Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R-Richmond, in his first Senate re-election campaign, debated challenger Ghazala Hashmi. 

A crowd of around 100 people filled Studio A of Virginia’s home for Public Media, and more tuned in to hear the debate live on-air. The candidates answered questions submitted by the audience in addition to ones written by hosts ChamberRVA and VPM.

Cox, who was elected unanimously as Speaker of the House in 2018, and Bynum-Coleman, now in her fourth political bid for a House district win, fielded questions on a variety of issues including budget priorities, housing, health care, gun control, climate change, and civil rights.

Bynum-Coleman, a small business owner, said she was inspired to run for office by her son, who has a learning disability. 

Bynum-Coleman and Cox agreed that education is a top legislative priority. Bynum-Coleman seeks to increase teacher pay as well as funding for schools and trade programs.

Cox, a retired teacher, also wants to raise teacher salaries to the national average. He added that he would focus on building the state’s cash reserve — currently over $1 billion — in the 2020 budget session.

“We have worked extremely hard to build that reserve against the recession,” Cox said. “I would like to build that reserve further.”

Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, moderator Craig Carper, and Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman at the candidate forum on Wednesday. Photo via CNS

Both candidates agreed that Virginia should remain ranked No. 1 for business, but Bynum-Coleman emphasized that the state should focus on workers. 

“I’m a small business owner, and we also have to make sure that Virginia is No. 1 for workers,” Bynum-Coleman said. “We’re talking about corporations versus people.”

Both candidates voiced support for LGBTQ non-discrimination protections. Cox said “discrimination should be against the law,” even though bills such as HB 2067 and HB 2677 to end anti-LGBTQ discrimination in work and housing did not make it past Republican-led House sub-committees in the regular legislative session. Cox said that state employment decisions should be merit-based. 

On the same issue, Bynum-Coleman said legislators should put measures in place so no one is discriminated against based on gender or sexual orientation.

Candidates were asked if they believe in climate change. Cox did not directly respond yes or no, but did say the state needs to be smart about alternative sources, that he has worked very hard on clean water and coastal flooding issues and that he’s against taxpayers absorbing costly energy tax policies.

Bynum-Coleman said she believes in climate change and wants the state to go beyond federal government requirements to ensure clean water and clean air. She talked multiple times about “stopping the chemicals that are going into our water.”

In response to defining common-sense gun legislation and gun regulation, Cox recognized that gun violence is a “serious problem” but sidestepped a direct answer to the question on restrictions. He pointed to the “constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens” and that Virginia has a lower crime rate than states with “more aggressive measures” for gun control.

Bynum-Coleman, whose daughter was shot in 2016, “wholeheartedly” wants universal background checks, which she said has support across the political spectrum and even among “a group of National Rifle Association members.” She also said she wants to ban bump stocks.

About two-thirds of the crowd remained for the second debate between Sturtevant and Hashmi. Sturtevant began by stating that his main priority is “continuing to be an independent voice for this district.” Sturtevant referenced a $25,000 donation that Gov. Ralph Northam made to Hashmi’s campaign via The Way Ahead PAC, saying that the donation “bought her silence” during the governor’s blackface scandal earlier this year.

“Governor Northam is not on the ballot in November 2019,” Hashmi said. “If we’re going to make decisions on who is right for this district, about who is right for Virginia, we need to be focusing on the issues that concern the voters in this district.”

Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R- Richmond, moderator Craig Carper, and Democrat Ghazala Hashmi at the candidate forum on Wednesday. Photo via CNS

Hashmi and Sturtevant had different views on whether Richmond’s Confederate statues should remain in place along Monument Avenue. Sturtevant supports leaving the monuments but adding historical context.

“I don’t think that just tearing down statues is the right way forward,” Sturtevant said. “Future generations will forget what was done here — and why — and America’s original sin of slavery.”

Hashmi, a professor at Reynolds Community College, countered his point by saying she teaches history through facts, but she doesn’t “teach history through Confederate monuments.” 

“What kind of a message do we send to visitors to our city when we have edifices that glorify a Confederate past?” Hashmi said. 

The Senate candidates differed on Medicaid and gun control, but both acknowledge climate change.

“I actually don’t believe in climate change … I believe in climate crisis,” Hashmi said. Sturtevant said he also believes in climate change, but said that there is no need to “destroy Virginia’s economy” while addressing climate change.

Sturtevant cited taxes as a reason he was opposed to Medicaid expansion, but he does not support rolling it back. Hashmi said expanding access to Medicaid is “an important first step” on lowering the costs of health care and wants to ensure access to health care “for all Virginians.”

Sturtevant said gun control is a mental health issue. Hashmi wants common sense gun safety and action in the General Assembly

The 66th District was one of 25 House districts redrawn earlier this year after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s ruling that the previous map was racially gerrymandered. Chesterfield County voters account for 78 percent of the district, which also includes the cities of Colonial Heights and Richmond. The 66th District is projected to be 32 percent more favorable to Democrats than in the past, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Republicans have held the 10th District — which voted for Democrats in the 2018, 2017, and 2016 elections — since a special election in 1986 — 33 years. Chesterfield and Richmond voters make up the bulk of the district, in addition to Powhatan County.

Cox has accrued the largest war chest of all House candidates, raising over $1.1 million. Bynum-Coleman has raised $470,308 in the same period.

Sturtevant has outraised Hashmi, $759,637 to $607,821, according to VPAP data from the end of August. New campaign totals will be released Oct. 15.

ChamberRVA and VPM will again partner for a 12th Senate District debate Oct. 18 at the VPM studio. Incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico squares off against challenger Del. Debra Rodman, D-Henrico.

Written by Jason Boleman, Capital News Service. Top Photo: Supporters meet with Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, and Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman after the candidate forum on Wednesday, via CNS

Human Rights Campaign Endorses & Invests In 27 Candidates For Virginia General Assembly

Marilyn Drew Necci | August 19, 2019

Topics: Democratic Party of Virginia, Equality Virginia, General Assembly, HRC, Human Rights Campaign, kirk cox, LGBTQ protections, Virginia Fair Housing Law

HRC is investing in the 27 candidates, all Democrats, in hopes of passing stronger protections for LGBTQ Virginians in the next General Assembly session.

On Thursday, Human Rights Campaign formally announced their decision to make a “six-figure” investment into the 2019 Virginia General Assembly campaign. Their campaign will take the form of endorsements and donations to 27 different candidates currently running for a seat on Virginia’s General Assembly.

“HRC is proud to endorse these pro-equality champions who will be our partners in achieving long-overdue non-discrimination protections for LGBTQ Virginians,” HRC President Alphonso David said in a statement. “Virginia is at a turning point: voters are fed up with politicians who insist on playing politics with the lives of LGBTQ people. Virginians deserve leaders who will fight for them and bring people together, not pit us against each other.”

All of the candidates receiving endorsements and investments from HRC are Democrats; 18 are women, and 10 are people of color. The endorsements constitute the largest program HRC has ever launched in Virginia. It will focus on “Equality Voters,” a HRC-defined category the group says it used “sophisticated analytics” to identify throughout the country in a 2018 program. The group says that their Virginia program will target 1.2 million of these Equality Voters in 27 districts around Virginia.

“In the coming months, HRC will work tirelessly to turn out the 1.2 million Equality Voters in Virginia and elect new leadership in Richmond that will put the needs of Virginians ahead of the needs of special interests,” David said in a statement.

In the most recent General Assembly session, at the beginning of 2019, a bipartisan majority of delegates supported two LGBTQ-focused anti-discrimination bills that had been proposed in that session. One, HB 2067, merely made the prohibitions against discrimination on basis of sexual orientation and gender identity for state employees, currently enforced by an executive order signed by Governor Northam on his first day in office, a permanent state law. The other, HB 2677, added prohibitions against discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity to Virginia’s Fair Housing Law.

Similar bills have passed with bipartisan support several times in the Virginia State Senate. However, despite widespread support for both bills, high-powered Republicans in the House Of Delegates, including Speaker of the House Kirk Cox and Majority Caucus Chairman Tim Hugo, worked to prevent both bills from coming to a vote in committee.

Among the candidates HRC is endorsing in this election cycle are Sheila Bynum-Coleman, who is running against Cox, and Dan Helmer, who is running against Hugo. Bynum-Coleman’s chances are seen as particularly strong in light of the fact that the recent anti-gerrymandering reforms passed in Virginia led District 66, which Cox currently represents, to be redrawn, making it 32 points more Democratic, according to Virginia Public Access Project, than it was previously.

“For the past six years, the Republican-controlled State Senate has passed legislation to protect LGBT people from discrimination,” said Equality Virginia Deputy Director Vee Lamneck in a statement. “But despite strong support from within his own Republican caucus, House Speaker Kirk Cox has repeatedly killed a number of bills that would have ensured LGBT people were treated fairly and equitably under our laws including common-sense, bipartisan bills that would have provided nondiscrimination protections for LGBT Virginians. Virginia can’t afford to allow discrimination to continue in our commonwealth. We need new leadership that will truly represent Virginia’s values.”

The full list of candidates that HRC is endorsing this year can be seen at their website.

Photo via HRC.org

Republican Court Challenges Seek to Keep Gerrymandering Alive in Virginia

Daniel Berti | December 3, 2018

Topics: district maps, General Assembly, kirk cox, OneVirginia2021, racial gerrymandering, redistricting, US Supreme Court

A Supreme Court ruling in a Virginia gerrymandering case could have a major impact on Virginia’s political landscape. 11 of Virginia’s House of Delegates districts were struck down as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in March, 2017 after the court found that those districts had been racially gerrymandered to dilute the voting power of African American voters.

Now, Republican legislators, including Speaker of the House of Delegates Kirk Cox, are appealing to the Supreme Court once again, making the argument that since the 2011 district map was approved by a bipartisan majority in 2011, it should not be redrawn until its regularly scheduled revision in 2021.

Republicans currently control Virginia’s House of Delegates by a razor thin margin of 51-49, but the redistricting process could shift the balance of power in favor of the Democratic party. The 11 districts that are being redrawn are primarily located in eastern Virginia, between Richmond and Hampton Roads, and touch an additional 20 districts that will be impacted by the redistricting process.

The state’s legislature and governor were given an opportunity to redraw the map by October 30, 2018, but couldn’t agree on new boundaries for the districts. The redistricting process has been passed to a special master, Bernard Grofman, who will have the final say in the mapping process.

Grofman redrew several of Virginia’s House of Representatives districts in 2015 after they were found to have violated racial gerrymandering laws. The new map led to the creation of a Democratic-leaning seat outside of Richmond that elected Donald McEachin in 2016.

Republican politicians oversaw the redistricting process in Virginia in 2011 when they had a significant majority in the both the House and Senate, and they’ve been in control of the general assembly ever since. Meanwhile, a majority of Virginians have voted for Democratic candidates in all presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial elections since 2012.

Brian Cannon, executive director of redistricting advocacy group OneVirginia2021, said that the Republicans who oversaw the 2011 redistricting process acted in a self-serving manner that has allowed them to retain a majority in the general assembly.

“The worst case scenario for redrawing districts is to let politicians do it because, not only are they the ones who got us into this mess in the first place, but they’re the most self interested people in the whole universe to draw these districts,” Cannon said.

Sam Wang, director of Princeton Gerrymandering Project, said that the Republican party’s racial gerrymandering served two interests: to reduce the power of African Americans by giving them very few districts, and to reduce the number of Democratically-held districts in the state.

“The Virginia state legislature has one of the strongest gerrymanders, from the partisan standpoint, in the country,” Wang said. “This redraw will level the playing field, not only for African Americans but for the two major parties, so that’s what’s at stake here.”

As part of Virginia Republicans’ current appeal to the Supreme Court, Cox has proposed that Virginia’s 2019 primaries be moved three months later, from June 10 to September 10, in order to give the Supreme Court time to release a ruling that is expected in May 2019. Cox has also argued that Grofman’s map shouldn’t be released until after the Supreme Court rules, since the court could conceivably rule in his and the Republicans’ favor.

The outcome of the 2019 Virginia state elections will likely determine which party will oversee the state redistricting process in 2021. Ben Williams, legal analyst for Princeton Gerrymandering Project, said that a shift in the balance of power won’t eliminate the possibility of a partisan gerrymander in 2021.

“Anytime that a single political party has control over redistricting, there’s a chance that districting will end up favoring that party,” Williams said. “I think that from a good government standpoint, it will lead to greater stability and greater competition if there are routes found that make redistricting either independent, non-partisan or bipartisan.”

Additional reporting by Marilyn Drew Necci; Image by Stephen Wolf, via DailyKos

In Wake of School Shootings, Delegates Push for Comprehensive Safety Approach

David Streever | July 13, 2018

Topics: house of delegates, kirk cox, Mass Casualty Attacks, School Safety, School Shootings, schuyler vanvalkenburg, virginia state government

What makes a school safe? Three state delegates say it’s more than checkpoints and metal detectors, and that their colleagues in the Virginia House aren’t doing enough to keep kids safe.

Delegates Schuyler VanValkenburg of the 72nd District, Mike Mullin of the 93rd District, and Jeff Bourne of the 71st District have issued a set of policy proposals to Virginia Speaker Kirk Cox and a newly-formed Select Committee on School Safety advocating a broader approach than their current focus on school shootings.

Reached by phone yesterday, VanValkenburg, a public school teacher, said the Department of Education defines school safety by several components, listing, “bullying, discrimination, day-to-day violence, the school climate.” He said he’d never downplay the tragedy of a school shooting scenario, but that school safety is too important to focus on only one issue.

“It seems to be the status quo for a lot of these committees to define a narrow focus around school shooters and how you can keep them out,” he said. “Fixing how you enter a school is an appropriate step, but it’s not adequate [on it’s own].” The safety committee has refused to consider gun policy or behavioral health according to a statement by Cox that referred to other considerations as “partisan.”

The delegates want Cox and the committee to increase support staff and provide mental health services, all in line with Department of Education guidelines. “You need to be looking at the behavioral and emotional needs of children,” VanValkenburg said. State spending on schools has fallen sharply since the recession of 2008, resulting in a $1 billion dollar shortfall. One consequence of that funding gap has been a reduction in support staff. The other consequence has been insufficient infrastructure spending, which has exacerbated the physical deterioration of Richmond public school buildings.

Following the school shooting in Parkland, Florida, safety committees have sprung up in localities and states across the country, all focused on mass-casualty shooting attacks. VanValkenburg pointed to statistics on violence that show most children find safe refuge from guns in school. A 2015 report by Erin Nekvasil and Dewey Cornell at the University of Virginia showed that children were 200 times more likely to be the victim of homicide outside of schools, supporting VanValkenburg’s numbers, and calling into question the “hardening” mindset that the state committee is solely considering.

“School safety isn’t just homicides,” he said. While making students safer is good on its own, he argued that a broader focus offers even more benefits. “If you’re being holistic in looking at school safety issues, the knock-on effect is that you’re improving education, period.”

Despite Cox’s initial statements, VanValkenburg was hopeful that their proposals would be included in the final safety committee report, due before the House begins its fall session in November. Some forty-five groups have signed letters making similar policy requests, including the Legal Aid Center, Richmond Academy of Medicine, and Moms Demand Action. “There’s a coalition of people who want this,” he said. ”Hopefully as we move to the subcommittee hearings, we’ll be able to get those ideas out and to the committee.”

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