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Op-Ed: The Blue Wave Is Still Cresting (Probably)

Rich Meagher | October 24, 2019

Topics: absentee ballots, Amanda Chase, Blue Wave, Commissioner of Revenue, Democratic Party of Virginia, General Assembly, Glen Sturtevant, kirk cox, Mark J. Matney, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, Siobhan Dunnavant, virginia election

As Virginia’s next election approaches, statewide trends are showing favor to Democratic candidates. Will they be able to gain control of the General Assembly?

There’s a pivotal election in Virginia next month (as usual). At stake: control of the state legislature, with Democrats trying to regain control of both houses for the first time in two decades.

This week, two seemingly unrelated news stories were published, both of which signal something important about this election.

First, the Virginia Mercury’s Mason Adams reported on a local race for an obscure county office in Christiansburg, a rural southwest part of the state. The GOP candidate for Washington County’s Commissioner of Revenue is proudly calling himself a “Trump Republican” — but what Trump has to do with collecting revenue in Southwest Virginia is hard to tell. 

Second, VCU’s Capital News Service reported on a significant increase in student absentee ballots compared to the last full General Assembly election in 2015.

What’s the takeaway? I think the Blue Wave is still real.

Democrats in Virginia have enjoyed strong wins in the last two elections, both in sweeping victories for statewide races and the House of Delegates in 2017, and strong showings in Congressional elections in 2018. This Blue Wave is part of a national trend that favors Democratic Party candidates all across the nation.

Predictions in politics are difficult, even foolhardy, to make. But after a tumultuous few months in Virginia politics, the same trends that made the Blue Wave possible seem to be reasserting dominance in VA.

Republicans were hopeful that the Governor’s blackface scandal would damage his party’s momentum. But the continued nationalization of local politics — again, a county Commissioner of Revenue candidate is calling himself a Trump guy — may be overwhelming any static from the Governor’s troubles.

Photo via Dr. Mark J. Matney for Commissioner of Revenue/Facebook

The race for the 10th Virginia Senate district is a good example. In a debate last week, Republican incumbent Glen Sturtevant made a big deal out of his opponent criticizing Northam before later taking campaign money from Northam’s PAC. I suspect that nobody cares; Northam’s approval rating is again approaching 50%.

On the other hand, Sturtevant earlier this year waded into a local school board zoning issue (so much for Republican focus on local control of schools). He distributed flyers titled “Save Our Neighborhood Schools” in a transparent attempt to stir up white resentment, earning a “segregationist” label to boot. This kind of desperate move does not indicate a comfortable front-runner.

Republicans are also hopeful that Virginia’s off-year elections, with no national or statewide races on the ballot, would help GOP candidates this fall; lower turnout tends to favor the demographics of Republican voters, even in a now-solidly-blue state like Virginia. But early trends, like the student absentees noted above, suggest that larger forces may counter the typical Democratic voter falloff. Anti-Trump enthusiasm remains a potent force, and it again could make the difference in 2019.

There are other trends that favor Democrats as well. First, the notoriously-disorganized Virginia Democrats seem more methodical than in previous years. For example, a few candidates in Henrico are sharing offices and resources for their campaigns, a sign that the infrastructure the party has constructed over the last two election cycles is functioning and able to help turnout. The off-cycle elections are again the only game in town, drawing the attention of the national parties and national news media. Maybe most importantly, money is flowing in again from national sources, especially to Democrats.

Of course, these trends may still not help individual Democratic candidates in tough races. Sheila Bynum-Coleman still has a long way to go to knock off the powerful Republican Speaker, Kirk Cox, in HD66. The race between Debra Rodman and Siobhan Dunnavant in SD12 seems like it will go down to the wire. Incumbent Senator Amanda Chase would probably have to start regularly kicking dogs to lose in her red district. (But who knows — based on her track record, anything is possible!) Democrats could end up with a strong majority of statewide votes, and still lose the numbers game for control of the legislature.

Still, the overall feel of this race is familiar. Unless something dramatic happens between now and November — and in Virginia, we can never count that out — the state should be thinking blue.

Note: Op-Eds are contributions from guest writers and do not reflect RVA Magazine editorial policy.

Top Photo by Jeremy Bishop on Unsplash

Candidate Debates Spotlight Closely Contested General Assembly Races

VCU CNS | October 14, 2019

Topics: candidate debates, Climate change, General Assembly, Ghazala Hashmi, Glen Sturtevant, gun control, kirk cox, LGBTQ rights, Sheila Bynum-Coleman, teacher salaries

With control of the General Assembly at stake, Republican incumbents Kirk Cox and Glen Sturtevant faced their Democratic challengers, Ghazala Hashmi and Sheila Bynum-Coleman, in contentious debates last week.

Republican incumbents fighting to keep seats in the 10th Senate and 66th House Districts debated Democratic challengers Wednesday night. Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, elected to the district in 1989, faced opponent Sheila Bynum-Coleman. Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R-Richmond, in his first Senate re-election campaign, debated challenger Ghazala Hashmi. 

A crowd of around 100 people filled Studio A of Virginia’s home for Public Media, and more tuned in to hear the debate live on-air. The candidates answered questions submitted by the audience in addition to ones written by hosts ChamberRVA and VPM.

Cox, who was elected unanimously as Speaker of the House in 2018, and Bynum-Coleman, now in her fourth political bid for a House district win, fielded questions on a variety of issues including budget priorities, housing, health care, gun control, climate change, and civil rights.

Bynum-Coleman, a small business owner, said she was inspired to run for office by her son, who has a learning disability. 

Bynum-Coleman and Cox agreed that education is a top legislative priority. Bynum-Coleman seeks to increase teacher pay as well as funding for schools and trade programs.

Cox, a retired teacher, also wants to raise teacher salaries to the national average. He added that he would focus on building the state’s cash reserve — currently over $1 billion — in the 2020 budget session.

“We have worked extremely hard to build that reserve against the recession,” Cox said. “I would like to build that reserve further.”

Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, moderator Craig Carper, and Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman at the candidate forum on Wednesday. Photo via CNS

Both candidates agreed that Virginia should remain ranked No. 1 for business, but Bynum-Coleman emphasized that the state should focus on workers. 

“I’m a small business owner, and we also have to make sure that Virginia is No. 1 for workers,” Bynum-Coleman said. “We’re talking about corporations versus people.”

Both candidates voiced support for LGBTQ non-discrimination protections. Cox said “discrimination should be against the law,” even though bills such as HB 2067 and HB 2677 to end anti-LGBTQ discrimination in work and housing did not make it past Republican-led House sub-committees in the regular legislative session. Cox said that state employment decisions should be merit-based. 

On the same issue, Bynum-Coleman said legislators should put measures in place so no one is discriminated against based on gender or sexual orientation.

Candidates were asked if they believe in climate change. Cox did not directly respond yes or no, but did say the state needs to be smart about alternative sources, that he has worked very hard on clean water and coastal flooding issues and that he’s against taxpayers absorbing costly energy tax policies.

Bynum-Coleman said she believes in climate change and wants the state to go beyond federal government requirements to ensure clean water and clean air. She talked multiple times about “stopping the chemicals that are going into our water.”

In response to defining common-sense gun legislation and gun regulation, Cox recognized that gun violence is a “serious problem” but sidestepped a direct answer to the question on restrictions. He pointed to the “constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens” and that Virginia has a lower crime rate than states with “more aggressive measures” for gun control.

Bynum-Coleman, whose daughter was shot in 2016, “wholeheartedly” wants universal background checks, which she said has support across the political spectrum and even among “a group of National Rifle Association members.” She also said she wants to ban bump stocks.

About two-thirds of the crowd remained for the second debate between Sturtevant and Hashmi. Sturtevant began by stating that his main priority is “continuing to be an independent voice for this district.” Sturtevant referenced a $25,000 donation that Gov. Ralph Northam made to Hashmi’s campaign via The Way Ahead PAC, saying that the donation “bought her silence” during the governor’s blackface scandal earlier this year.

“Governor Northam is not on the ballot in November 2019,” Hashmi said. “If we’re going to make decisions on who is right for this district, about who is right for Virginia, we need to be focusing on the issues that concern the voters in this district.”

Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R- Richmond, moderator Craig Carper, and Democrat Ghazala Hashmi at the candidate forum on Wednesday. Photo via CNS

Hashmi and Sturtevant had different views on whether Richmond’s Confederate statues should remain in place along Monument Avenue. Sturtevant supports leaving the monuments but adding historical context.

“I don’t think that just tearing down statues is the right way forward,” Sturtevant said. “Future generations will forget what was done here — and why — and America’s original sin of slavery.”

Hashmi, a professor at Reynolds Community College, countered his point by saying she teaches history through facts, but she doesn’t “teach history through Confederate monuments.” 

“What kind of a message do we send to visitors to our city when we have edifices that glorify a Confederate past?” Hashmi said. 

The Senate candidates differed on Medicaid and gun control, but both acknowledge climate change.

“I actually don’t believe in climate change … I believe in climate crisis,” Hashmi said. Sturtevant said he also believes in climate change, but said that there is no need to “destroy Virginia’s economy” while addressing climate change.

Sturtevant cited taxes as a reason he was opposed to Medicaid expansion, but he does not support rolling it back. Hashmi said expanding access to Medicaid is “an important first step” on lowering the costs of health care and wants to ensure access to health care “for all Virginians.”

Sturtevant said gun control is a mental health issue. Hashmi wants common sense gun safety and action in the General Assembly

The 66th District was one of 25 House districts redrawn earlier this year after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s ruling that the previous map was racially gerrymandered. Chesterfield County voters account for 78 percent of the district, which also includes the cities of Colonial Heights and Richmond. The 66th District is projected to be 32 percent more favorable to Democrats than in the past, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Republicans have held the 10th District — which voted for Democrats in the 2018, 2017, and 2016 elections — since a special election in 1986 — 33 years. Chesterfield and Richmond voters make up the bulk of the district, in addition to Powhatan County.

Cox has accrued the largest war chest of all House candidates, raising over $1.1 million. Bynum-Coleman has raised $470,308 in the same period.

Sturtevant has outraised Hashmi, $759,637 to $607,821, according to VPAP data from the end of August. New campaign totals will be released Oct. 15.

ChamberRVA and VPM will again partner for a 12th Senate District debate Oct. 18 at the VPM studio. Incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, R-Henrico squares off against challenger Del. Debra Rodman, D-Henrico.

Written by Jason Boleman, Capital News Service. Top Photo: Supporters meet with Del. Kirk Cox, R-Colonial Heights, and Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman after the candidate forum on Wednesday, via CNS

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