Virginia 7th district

Before the June 12 primary, I would have called the 7th congressional district race between Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger and Rep. Dave Brat a pure toss-up.

But after Spanberger’s landslide win, and Corey Stewart’s poor performance in the GOP primary in the district, I’m considering the district as a democratic lean. Stewart only took 33 percent of the vote in a district that was once a Republican stronghold. Spanberger is favored to win by at least 5 percent, but unlikely to reach double digits against incumbent congressman and Tea Party hero Brat.

Spanberger is one of the best Democratic recruits for the US House in the country, certainly in my top 10. Judging by the yard signs all over the west end of Henrico County, which Spanberger is certain to carry, her campaign has strong grassroots support. Of course, this isn’t the only area Spanberger needs to carry in order to flip the 7th for the first time in decades. She’ll also need to carry Chesterfield County, ensure a high turnout in Southside, and continue to make the western suburbs even bluer. At the moment, I’d say she’s favored to carry Chesterfield, too, likely to improve on Northam’s margins there last year. The final population center is in Spotsylvania County, which contains the blue-trending suburbs of Fredericksburg, where Brat and Stewart are currently favored to carry, Stewart by less than 5 percent, and Brat by more than 10 percent.

Outside of Richmond, toward the rural part of the Capital Region in Goochland, Powhatan, and Amelia, Spanberger is likely to improve on Northam’s margins with Sen. Tim Kaine at the top of the ticket. In fact, Kaine may even flip Goochland County, though it’s almost certain to split its ticket for Brat. Right now, Kaine is estimated to lose Goochland County to Corey Stewart by less than 5 percent, similar to when then-State Senator Northam only lost the county by 4.53 percent to E.W. Jackson in the race for Lieutenant Governor in 2013.

Though it’s possible for Kaine to flip it with an estimated margin that small, depending on where the coordinated campaigns of Kaine and Spanberger decide to spend their resources. Perhaps the campaign will follow the classic Kaine formula of winning in Virginia he set in 2005: nuking the GOP in the most populated areas, Richmond, northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads, while investing little resources elsewhere. Or, they could go a different route and invest in flippable counties like Goochland and Nottoway, while making sure they meet the minimums in the populated parts of their races.

Regardless of which path to victory the campaigns decide on, Spanberger is still likely to be the next congressperson of the Commonwealth’s 7th district. Brat no longer fits the 7th district now that Hanover County, his base of support in 2014 as a Randolph-Macon professor running for office, has been redrawn into Virginia’s 1st district.

The Tea Party that put Brat over the top in his historic primary win is not as dominant in the remaining counties in the 7th as they are in Hanover County. Brat has refused to meet with constituents at a town hall for over a year now, earning a reputation that he’s as unavailable as his predecessor, Eric Cantor. More tangible indicators are also working against him. He’s been consistently outraised by Spanberger in every quarter, seemingly thanks to her large pool of volunteers operating phone banks, canvassing operations, and other outreach.

Spanberger is not certain to flip the 7th, but she’s absolutely favored at this point to become the first woman to represent the district. It’s still August though, and there’s a long way to go until election day.

This columnist has volunteered with the Democratic party of Virginia.

For Republican Congressman Dave Brat, public town hall events in Virginia’s 7th district continue to set the stage for anti-Trump and anti-GOP displays, both traditional and creative.

Brat, who came into office in 2014 on the back of the Tea Party-wave, has faced jeering crowds during both post-Trump Congressional recesses. A policy wonk and economics professor, Brat tried to use figures and numbers to deflect criticism during a familiarly hostile town hall (read more about that here) Tuesday night in Chesterfield. But outside, a very different kind of protest was held.

Complete with a trumpet blaring “Last Post” and a women in a wheelchair dressed as the Grim Reaper, several dozen protestors, many claiming to be 7th District constituents, lined the streets of Bailey Bridge Rd, draped in Black and lying on the ground in a “die-in.” Their cardboard “grave stones” memorialized the death of their health care under the new Trump/Ryan plan, and criticized Trump’s other, often extraordinary, actions.

Video by Indivisible Midlothian

The protest was organized by Indivisible Richmond, a newly created org that aims to oppose President Trump in any and all of his actions. Members were also present for Brat’s last town hall down in Blackstone, VA, in February.

“We didn’t have a good event to do [the die-in] at,” said Kirsten O’Nell, Lead coordinator for Indivisible Richmond. Brat has made a habit of conducting online town halls over facebook or, as was the case with Blackstone in February, holding town halls in limited venues at the furthest reaches of his freshly-gerrymandered district. “But he had this highly moderated town hall, and it was in an area where a majority of his constituents live, so we said ‘if we can’t get it, we’re going to hold this protest.'”

O’Nell has been with Indivisible Richmond for only a few months but has already taken on an organizing role. While she considers herself a “politics and government nerd,” she admitted this kind of activism was new to her.

“Much like everyone else I was drawn to activism… because we didn’t like the direction we saw the country going in,” she said. “There was racism bubbling up, and its always been there below the surface. It’s just become a lot more accepted than it should be… and the administration is going a lot more towards fascism and it’s not okay.”

O’Nell said a majority of those in attendance disapproved of Brat’s vote in support of the ACHA (read more about the ACHA and the five other Virginia congressman who voted for it here), the Republican bill hoping to roll back Obama care, and the die-in played into that metaphor particularly well.

Keep up with Indivisible Richmond on Facebook here.

‘Berger vs Brat: Predicting the 7th District Congressional Race

Richmonders host die-in to protest Dave Brat’s healthcare vote