Your health insurance is renewing, congratulations, and by the way, it’s going to cost a lot more next year. Maybe twice as much, maybe five times, depending on how much you make and how little Congress feels like doing its job.
That’s about 400,000 Virginians whose coverage through the Affordable Care Act marketplace depends on subsidies that vanish at the end of the year unless Congress acts.
And this doesn’t have to happen. The federal government could stop it tomorrow. The funding exists. The authority exists. The same party controls the White House, the House, and the Senate. But instead of simply extending the program that keeps healthcare affordable for working families, the Republican majority is holding it hostage in a budget fight no one outside the Capitol asked for.
Democrats are fighting to keep the subsidies in place, arguing that access to healthcare shouldn’t depend on whether you can afford to gamble with your life. Republicans, meanwhile, are pretending the free market will sort it out, as if Aetna and Anthem are suddenly going to develop a conscience. It’s the same brand of cynicism we saw this week when multiple states had to sue the Trump administration just to release billions in SNAP reserve funds, money that could feed families but is instead sitting in bureaucratic limbo while people line up at food banks.
The cruelty isn’t a glitch; it’s a feature.
Virginia’s State Corporation Commission has already run the numbers. Renewal notices show rate increases between 4% and 40% for 2026, and that’s before the federal tax credits disappear. Without them, out-of-pocket costs could balloon to two, three, even five times higher. A sixty-year-old couple in Henrico or Chesterfield paying $802 a month now could be looking at $1,800 by January. A family of four making $96,000 could pay $300 more every month.
Small business owners are in the same boat. Lester Johnson, who owns Mama J’s Kitchen in Richmond, told reporters his family plan would more than double, to over $1,400 per month, if the subsidies vanish. That’s a lot of shrimp and grits to cover the cost of Washington’s dysfunction.
Governor Glenn Youngkin rolled out Virginia’s Emergency Nutrition Assistance (VENA) program to fill the gaps left by the federal shutdown. But even there, he couldn’t resist taking a swipe, blaming “the dereliction of duty on the part of our federal Democrat Senators” for the mess. It’s a nice soundbite, but it’s backwards. The Democrats are the ones trying to extend the ACA tax credits. The people blocking them are the same ones preaching fiscal restraint while spending billions reminding Americans who’s really in charge.
If the subsidies disappear, the economic fallout will be swift. The Commonwealth Fund estimates that Virginia could lose hundreds of millions in federal dollars and thousands of healthcare-related jobs. Hospitals and clinics will eat the losses. Small businesses will cut coverage. Families will quietly go uninsured and hope for the best.
And through it all, Congress will still get paid.
Open enrollment starts Saturday. Virginians can log on, compare plans, and hope the fine print doesn’t change again. Maybe the subsidies get renewed at the last minute, and we call it a victory. Maybe they don’t, and the fallout becomes just another line item in someone’s political strategy.
So yes, health insurance is open for enrollment again. Just don’t expect compassion to be part of the plan.
Photo by Harold Mendoza
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