By now, everyone has seen the clips of the infamous press conference between President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Awkward,” might be an understatement. But alas, here we are, only 43 days into the next four years. The news these days feels like an exercise in capitulatory self-harm—or as legendary DC punk band Nation of Ulysses once said, “Sell it uptown, sell it downtown…gotta get a shot from the man.”
Still, this feels like the perfect time to class up our pages by sliding into your feed with an article about the complex and murky world of European geopolitics. After all, this is RVA Mag—why wouldn’t we explore the ramification of the war in Ukraine in between our regularly scheduled music, arts, and culture reporting?
In all seriousness, this is our way of acknowledging the anxiety we’re all feeling right now. Global events are shaping our future in real time, and if you’re like us, it’s not just overwhelming—it’s like a déjà-vu hangover. So, we wanted to offer an easy(ish) overview—a crash course, if you will—of what’s going on with Ukraine, U.S, Russia, and Europe, because soon enough, we’ll all be living in this brave new world.
State of Play
No matter where you stand politically, the reality is this: Russia is the aggressor in the war on Ukraine, with help from North Korea (sending troops) and Iran (supplying offensive drone technologies). That’s not up for debate. What is worth discussing is the current state of play.
Depending on your news source, Ukraine is either one bullet away from winning or losing the war. But the battlefield data tells a more complicated story. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia currently occupies around 20 percent of Ukraine—the Donbas Region. Yet at Russia’s current rate of advance, it would take close to 83 years to occupy the rest of the country.
In other words, Ukraine isn’t in immediate danger of collapse; cities are still functioning, people are still living their lives. However, the war has settled into a state of attrition—neither side is achieving its primary goals. Ukraine wants to retake lost territory; Russia wants to seize more territory. Neither can happen at scale right now. This stalemate points towards negotiations, but how those negotiations happen—and their ultimate outcome—will shape global security for generations. That’s why last Friday’s press conference and Trump’s direct negotiations with Russia have sent shockwaves through Europe.
Worth mentioning that over the weekend, Russia launched 83 suicide attack drones against Ukraine.
From Russia with Love
Trump’s tense relationship with Zelensky goes all the way back to his first impeachment in 2019, as does his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin. None of this changed on February 12, when it was announced that Trump had a one-on-one call with Putin—effectively ending a three-year policy of diplomatically isolating Russia. A policy that was backed by the European Union (EU), NATO, and, until very recently, the U.S On February 18, a follow on meeting was held between high-level Russian and U.S. delegations led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—but neither Ukraine or any other European nations were invited to participate. Russia stated that they saw no place for “Europeans to be at any negotiating table.” This is fueling deep anxiety, since these parties will be most affected by any deal they weren’t part of negotiating.
In the starkest editorial terms, this marks a seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy. For years, our approach has been to contain, isolate, and deter Russia. Now, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov is celebrating what he calls a victory, stating that America’s views “largely coincide with our vision,” adding that “this was truly impossible to imagine.” Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has dug in, responding bluntly: “[Ukraine] cannot recognize any deals about us, without us.”
This “divide and conquer” strategy benefits Russia by pitting the U.S. and Europe against each other, undercutting the security guarantees (a popular phrase this week) that have kept Russia’s territorial ambitions in check. Putin’s overarching goal is to reclaim parts of the former Soviet Union—and he seems to be setting stage to do just that.
“The road to hell is paved with chocolate sweets.” — Nation of Ulysses
A Long Time Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away
Here’s the deal: it might sound reductive given the current state of the world, but for around 80 years, the U.S. – European “transatlantic” alliance has been a key pillar of global security, largely thanks to NATO. Even so, no honest observer of foreign policy would ever claim Europe has done enough for its own collective security. European nations became prosperous under American security guarantees (that phrase again) but now that script is flipping and they will have to do more—and rightfully so.
According to The Washington Post, the U.S. has “disbursed or obligated” $140.5 billion to Ukraine, while European nations have put up around $145 billion in a mix of financial, military, humanitarian, and refugee assistance. So the story is not as simple as we might believe. Nevertheless, Europe now faces a new reality, one where they might face a resurgent Russia without U.S. support. The outcome of this will be an epic bender of defense spending, but their industrial capacity isn’t prepared to match the threats they face. Building that capacity will take years of investment and innovation.
In the meantime, no country can do what the U.S. does in terms of defense capabilities. Without our security guarantees (there it is again), Europe simply doesn’t have enough muscle to deter another Russian invasion. Russia knows this, Europe knows this—hence the palpable panic among countries like France, Germany, and the UK.
“I got a feeling… yeah, yeah, yeah.” — Nation of Ulysses
Moving Forward
Foreign policy analyst Michael Weiss said it best last Friday: we’re in “terra incognita”—unknown territory. The U.S. shift away from the transatlantic alliance in favor of Russia is causing a foundational rupture in global security. The future is now uncertain. Last week’s disastrous press conference only fueled the sense that our foreign policy is now more transactional than values based (like supporting democracy). Americans must now ask themselves what we truly believe in as a country.
There’s still a chance for Zelensky and Trump to reconcile. The much talked about economic agreement around rare-earth minerals could repair the breach. But our credibility and commitments are already being questioned by our allies and friends. Most nations have come to the pragmatic realization that negotiations are the only way forward to end the war. However, appeasing Russia without meaningful concessions will only set the stage for wider conflict in the not-too-distant future. This is where the real threat of global war emerges. After all, if this is the outcome for an aggressor nation, what incentive do our adversaries in the Middle East (Iran) and Asia (China) have to dial it back when the opportunity is right?
“Baby if this was Nuremberg, they’d be hanging on your every word.” — Nation of Ulysses
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