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In Richmond Mayor’s Race, Math Matters

Rich Meagher | September 30, 2020

Topics: alexsis rodgers, annexation, Election 2020, Justin Griffin, Kim Gray, Levar Stoney, Richmond city council, Richmond mayoral race, Tracey McLean

Richmond’s mayoral election is more like nine mini-elections, making the path to victory complicated for both incumbent Mayor Levar Stoney and his four challengers. Rich Meagher breaks it down for us.

As Richmond’s mayoral race heats up, it’s worth remembering that this is more than just an election. For incumbent Levar Stoney and his four challengers – Kim Gray, Justin Griffin, Tracey McLean, and Alexsis Rodgers – it’s also a math problem.

What many people don’t realize is that there is not one single mayoral election. Thanks to the city’s arcane election rules, there are actually nine mini-elections, one in each City Council district. To become Mayor, a candidate needs to get a plurality of votes (more than anyone else, not necessarily a majority) in five of the nine districts. If this does not happen, the top two candidates citywide move to a December runoff, where one of them should be able to win the five districts they need.

What’s with the weird election setup? Well, like everything in the former capital of the Confederacy, it’s all about race. 

Richmond has for a long time been a “majority-minority” city, where Blacks outnumber whites. But poverty rates and educational levels work to skew the electorate towards whites. When the current city government structure was set up two decades ago, some were concerned that a citywide election would be dominated by Richmond’s white power structure.

Map of Richmond, with 1970 annexation territory in dark green. By DIT_Richmond, Via Church Hill People’s News.

This was not an idle concern. Richmond actually did not hold elections for much of the 1970s because the federal Department of Justice (DOJ) shut them down. The 1970 annexation of majority-white south side districts from Chesterfield County was rightly interpreted by the DOJ as an attempt to dilute the power of Black voters and maintain white control of the city. The Supreme Court eventually allowed the annexation, but only so long as the city government was divided into districts that protected minority representation.

So when former Governor Doug Wilder and former Mayor Tom Bliley rewrote the city’s charter, they added the “5-of-9” rule to protect Black voters’ voice in determining who leads the city. 

But this rule has many unintended consequences for the 2020 election. Here’s a few:

  • Like the Electoral College nationally, the “5 of 9” rule eliminates the need to win the citywide popular vote. In 2016, Levar Stoney narrowly edged out Jack Berry in overall votes, winning 36 percent to Berry’s 34 percent. But it is entirely possible for a candidate to put together narrow wins in five districts, but lose big in the others, coming in second citywide to another candidate. The popular vote only really matters in determining which two candidates go to a runoff; but even in that runoff, the second place candidate citywide could still take 5 of 9 and become Mayor.
  • The 5 of 9 math creates all kinds of implications for campaign strategy. Rather than trying to win the race outright, the goal for many candidates might be to win a district or two and force a runoff. For example, I would probably handicap Alexsis Rodgers as currently running in third place to Stoney and Gray. But Rodgers could focus her efforts on stealing a district or two, denying the other two a victory; and then use her progressive base to squeak into second place – and the runoff.
  • A runoff election could reset the race entirely. Runoffs are notoriously low-turnout affairs, as voters exhausted by campaigns demonstrate waning interest into the winter. Dedicated core constituencies might matter much more than fundraising or incumbency. Mayor Stoney, who probably has the best shot at winning the November election outright, would surely like to avoid a runoff where his campaign’s advantages are considerably weakened.
  • Multiple candidates complicate the race as well. What if local attorney Justin Griffin and Council member Kim Gray end up competing for votes in the city’s more conservative West End, denying either a shot at the runoff? Griffin and Tracey McLean are probably running considerably behind the other three candidates, but they can still play spoiler by winning a district or at least denying a district to another candidate.
  • Runoffs not only add to election fatigue, but are expensive. (In 2016 the city’s registrar suggested that a runoff might cost the city $160,000.) There’s been a lot of buzz statewide about the possibility of implementing Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), which allows citizens to indicate their preferences among multiple candidates on a single ballot. In an RCV system, if no one wins a plurality, people’s second choices are used to automatically determine a winner without the need for a costly second election. Expect to hear more about RCV in Richmond, especially if we do go end up with a runoff this year.

Behind all of these permutations is, ironically, the question of legitimacy. The current system was put in place to counter a rigged history that favored white interests at the expense of minority rights. But in order to ensure a fully participatory system, we may end up with a leader who lacks a popular mandate. A mayor who does not command a majority – or, as I suggest above, might have been elected without even a plurality – could have trouble getting the city to support their policies.

Mayor Levar Stoney

Levar Stoney, who came out of a give-way race in 2016 with barely a third of the vote, certainly has been criticized; but the legitimacy concern has not dogged him as much as it might have seemed after his election. Still, his lack of a mandate might finally be catching up to him. If Stoney loses this election, it is likely because his advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and powerful friends in city and state government still could not generate enough support in the electorate. If he does lose, maybe his real problem was that he never had that many supporters to begin with.

Top Photo by STEPHEN POORE on Unsplash

Chaos at GWARbar

Jamie McEachin | September 4, 2020

Topics: black lives matter, GWARbar, Jimmie Lee Jarvis, Kim Gray, Michael Derks, protests, Richmond police

Fueled by a dubious flyer and a lack of information, an incident at GWARbar last month resulted in multiple arrests, as well as conflicting reports of what actually occurred. RVA Mag attempts to get to the bottom of this.

The night of Thursday, August 20, tensions in Jackson Ward were high as the neighborhood anticipated a gathering at GWARbar, the local punk rock bar affiliated with legendary Richmond band GWAR. 

Before Thursday night, a flyer had circulated in the neighborhood calling for a gathering for “autonomous action” at the GWARbar parking lot. By the end of the night, the parking lot was the scene of a violent encounter between RPD and a small group of peaceful protesters, according to a source connected to GWARbar who prefers to remain anonymous. The incident resulted in two arrests of protesters who were charged with conspiracy to incite a riot and assault on a law enforcement officer, according to reports by WTVR.

The purpose of the flier and the gathering is still unclear to the residents of Jackson Ward, said Michael Derks, the owner of GWARbar, in a statement. Derks said that despite calls of concern from the neighborhood and a request made by the district’s City Councilperson, Kim Gray, for GWARbar to put up a “no trespassing” sign, he decided to open the bar for the night. 

“I made the decision to keep the bar open partly because I did not believe that we were in danger,” Derks said in his statement. “But also because if I was wrong, an open establishment with happy patrons is a much less inviting target for vandals than a shuttered building with threatening signs.”

The anonymous flyer that started the whole thing. Image via Jimmie Lee Jarvis/Twitter

If protesters did gather in the bar’s parking lot, Derks said he had planned to mediate between protestors and RPD and explain that they were there with his permission. In his statement, Derks said that he hoped “to be the voice of reason between the police and protesters.” He didn’t want the situation to escalate like other incidents where protesters were arrested for no reason, he said. 

The expectation of violence, trespassing and vandalism led to a tension-filled start to Thursday night, according to the anonymous source. They walked around GWARbar’s block at around 9:30 pm to see if people were gathering in the parking lot, where the flier had specified participants were to meet. They said at that time there was no one in the lot. 

The anonymous source said they, like others in the community who are regulars at GWARbar, decided to be at the bar to keep an eye on the event in case it got out of hand. When they arrived at GWARbar a little before 10 pm, they said there were less than 15 people gathered in the parking lot.

“We were just like, ‘We’re not going to let anyone mess up an actual neighborhood, community bar,’” they said. “A lot of us showed up to make sure we had the business’ back.”

The police arrived and blocked the parking lot with cars between 10:15 and 10:20 pm, the anonymous source said. Immediately, they said, the officers acted against the protesters. A video taken by our source, timestamped at 10:21 pm, shows officers calling for IDs and forcefully arresting two protesters when the crowd refused to comply. Multiple protesters were physically shoved to the pavement of the parking lot by the police, the video showed. (The incident was captured in several videos later shared on RVA Mag’s Instagram account, linked here: 1, 2, 3, 4)

The video shared with us by the anonymous source showed that Derks stepped out of the bar at 10:22 pm and alerted RPD that the parking lot was his private property and the protesters weren’t trespassing. Despite this action, the police continued to detain the two arrested protesters and remained in front of GWARbar until 11:53 pm, the anonymous source said. Unmarked vans and armored cars continued to make laps around the block after the officers left the scene.

Derks said that he understood the concerns of the people who called to warn the bar and of Gray, who he said believed that the protest may have been planned to target her home in Jackson Ward. The anonymous source said they believed that allegations of protesters targeting Gray’s house were falsely reported by the police and the media, and that targeting had never happened. 

“I understand how Ms. Gray feels betrayed by my decision not to close my restaurant but I can not know what people do when they are not at my establishment,” Derks said in the statement. “I can only influence what they do when they are there, and I will not allow people to be discriminated against while they are here, whether it be for the color of their skin, their sexual orientation, or even the way they dress.”

Police vehicles in front of GWARbar. Photo by Jimmie Lee Jarvis, via Twitter

The anonymous source also contradicted reports by ABC 8 News of the number of protesters that gathered in GWARbar’s parking lot. 

Jimmie Lee Jarvis, a Richmond-based independent reporter, decided to attend after seeing the flyer on social media. 

“What was 15 people hanging out became over 100 people heavily armed escalating things until multiple people were arrested,” Jarvis told ABC 8 News. 

The anonymous source who spoke to RVA Magazine said there were no more than 20 protesters in the parking lot of GWARbar throughout the night. 

Jarvis told ABC 8 News he was shoved to the ground by an officer when he began recording the interaction on his phone. 

The anonymous source said that they didn’t understand why GWARbar was targeted, because it is well regarded by the Jackson Ward community as a true example of a neighborhood dive bar. They said it has always been a safe space for its workers and patrons. 

Derks said he was conflicted about his place as a business owner in the ongoing conflict between protesters and police brutality. 

“As a business owner I have struggled to stay neutral as the world goes insane around me,” Derks said in his statement. “It is not GWARbar’s place to choose a side in the heated discourse that is ripping at the very fabric of our society, but last night I was reluctantly thrust onto the frontline of these struggles.”

Top Photo by Jimmie Lee Jarvis, via Twitter

It’s On: Richmond’s Next Mayor Must Deal With A Changing City

Rich Meagher | March 9, 2020

Topics: Arthur Ashe Boulevard, Democratic Party of Virginia, Election 2020, Justin Griffin, Kim Gray, Levar Stoney, Navy Hill, Paul Goldman, Richmond city council, Richmond For All, Richmond mayoral race, RVA Dirt, Terry McAuliffe

While the presidential election remains at the forefront of news coverage, Rich Meagher reminds us that for Richmonders, the most important election of 2020 might be that of the city’s next mayor.

Everything is politics these days. Thanks to the Democratic Party’s takeover of the state legislature, we’ve seen more laws than we can follow. Super Tuesday brought a gaggle of Presidential candidates to Virginia, and helped reset the race for the Democratic nomination. Richmonders might not have had time to catch their breath, let alone think about what might be the most important political question this year:

Who will be Richmond’s next Mayor?

Second District Councilwoman Kim Gray made her long-rumored campaign official when she announced her candidacy on Sunday. Local lawyer Justin Griffin, who was a vocal critic of the recent Navy Hill arena development plan, is “exploring” a run. And at least according to one report, another Navy Hill critic, longtime political operator Paul Goldman, is collecting signatures as well. Others may step up before the June 9 filing deadline. And then of course there’s the incumbent, Levar Stoney, who will certainly run for a second term.

All of these candidates will have to reckon with a city that is, in many ways, transforming before our eyes. The same old political formations exist, but they are overlaid with new power sources and new voices.

The Mayor just learned this lesson the hard way, with the aforementioned two words he is bound to hear a lot this fall on the campaign trail: Navy Hill.

The downtown development plan was supposed to restore the eponymous neighborhood to its former glory, as well as to help secure for Stoney a second term and a political future. Instead Navy Hill was blocked by a coalition of City Council members, including the Mayor’s now-opponent Kim Gray.

The Richmond Coliseum, which sits at the center of the proposed Navy Hill development. Photo by Jimmy O’Keefe

The Mayor and the plan’s developers tried to force Navy Hill through in the same way that these development plans have always worked in the past. First you bring city elites on board – not just the Mayor, but familiar white business leaders (Tom Farrell, Bill Goodwin, C.T. Hill, Marty Barrington). You recruit support from black political leaders like former Council President Michelle Mosby, and enlist respected local non-profits like the Better Housing Coalition. You leverage these folks (and your tremendous wealth) to put pressure on City Council from above and below. Political scientists call this “growth machine” politics, and it typically gets your plan through.

Only this time it didn’t work.

The city has changed, and not just in the number of beer bros and tattoos. There is a new political class forming in the city – younger, with varied influences.

We saw the first obvious signs of this change when the city’s Democratic organization was forced by the state party to throw out its election results. J.J. Minor, a longtime power broker in the city, was forced out in favor of new blood. (Minor, the son of state legislator Dolores McQuinn, is a key Stoney ally and stumped hard for Navy Hill.)

More recently, opposition to Navy Hill, public housing “reform,” and other city policies led to the formation of Richmond for All, a biracial coalition including prominent voices like WRIR radio host Chelsea Higgs Wise and School Board member Kenya Gibson. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), energized nationally by the Bernie Sanders campaign, have a vocal city chapter centered on VCU. A cadre of young citizen watchdogs, led by Francesca Leigh-Davis and Melissa Vaughan of RVADirt, live-tweet public meetings and share information.

A special election for the City Council’s 5th district seat last year featured some of these new voices. The district’s voters rejected older faces like former Council member Chuck Richardson and former Stoney advisor Thad Williamson in favor of millennial Stephanie Lynch. Former VCU DSA head Nick Da Silva also won significant support. It’s not exactly “a little child shall lead them,” but the city seems to want something new.

Now this November’s election looms over this changing political landscape.

Mayor Stoney has to try to mobilize citizens to keep him in office, and yet many voters were alienated by his two-year adventure with the Navy Hill developers. He has a number of other accomplishments he can run on, despite Navy Hill’s implosion. He had a lot to talk about in his state of the city address earlier this year, for example, including new aftercare programs for city kids and school construction.

Stoney reminded us of his powerful friends this past week as he appeared with former Governor Terry McAuliffe to endorse Joe Biden ahead of Virginia’s presidential primary. Stoney even had a fun viral moment when he and his mentor were trapped in an elevator for 30 minutes. (Trapped in an enclosed space with T-Mac: the worst nightmare of every Virginia Republican… and more than a few Democrats.)

But statewide Democratic officials are not city voters. Stoney will certainly retain the relentless positivity that is his trademark, but can his formidable skills and backing overcome the noise from his failed development plan?

Councilwoman Gray has her own baggage, particularly with what some critics think is an abrasive personality and an inconsistent voting record where her wealthy Second District constituents are concerned. These criticisms should be blunted by her lead role in the “Gang of 5” opposition to Navy Hill, as well as her successful efforts to push through the renaming of Arthur Ashe Boulevard. 

Photo via Arthur Ashe Boulevard Initiative/Facebook

Griffin is more of a wildcard. His principled opposition to Navy Hill made him a frequent presence in various media, social and otherwise, over the past year, and he seems to want to parlay a brand of common sense criticism into the Mayor’s office. But he’ll need more than complaints about city services to overcome both Gray and Stoney’s considerable advantages as incumbent public officials.

One thing Navy Hill’s failure has demonstrated is clear: the path to victory, as well as the way forward in governing the city, is much harder than it used to be. New forces are challenging Richmond’s old power structure, and anyone who wants to be Mayor should plan accordingly.

Top Image: Levar Stoney, photo via Facebook; Kim Gray, photo via Facebook; Justin Griffin, photo via Facebook; Paul Goldman, photo via Twitter

Japan’s OhShit!2099 has RVA roots from a name many of you already recognize

Tico Noise | March 21, 2017

Topics: City Council, fashion, Kim Gray, Ohshit!2099, streetwear

The surname Gray should ring a bell following this past election season. City Councilwoman Kim Gray represents the second district of Richmond, but her son, Zirchi, is also currently making moves – in Japan – with his online urban streetwear brand, OhShit!2099.

Zirchi’s collection, which consists of hoodies, hats, and t-shirts, is versatile with a hip online presence , branded skate videos, and even footage from shows on stages in Richmond. Born from a collaboration between Gray and Japanese artist and designer Kent, the line has accrued some notoriety online. The brand OhShit!2099, much like his mother’s vision for her respective Richmond district, was founded on principles of equality and includes themes of past and future.

“SAME OLD SHIT! in Japanese… can mean delicious. 2099 is part of the title too. It means the future, we are designing for the future,” said Gray and Kent of their clothing line. “We are looking at the past. We see what’s happening.”

Most of the illustrations and design intervals the brand features are hand-drawn by Gray or Kent themselves- they pull from their personal experiences and historical events to make commentary.

They also use “candy and women” as inspiration for their designs which have even attracted Korean and Chinese bootleggers. Legitimate designs from the brand are released several times in a season, unlike other fashion lines that update once per season. Prior to being approached about their brand, they did not truly identify as fashion designers, but just as visual artists.

“[The fashion design world] is just fame and money, good shit doesn’t get out,” said Gray. “We have no interest in fashion. We want to send [traditional fashion designers] to hell. Design is weak now.”

These themes of resentment of what is mainstream or normal show up in the OhShit!2099 collections. The brand features pins in the shapes of burning schools as well as crewneck sweaters that sport stitched images of police paddy wagons in flames, seemingly a response to failing public school systems and police brutality.

“Some of the designs are inspired by people and happenings that occurred before I came into existence,” said Gray. “The history I have inherited from both my mother and father have been a big part of my identity as {an} artist and a human being striving for my god given rights.”

Gray and and Kent were both inspired by their parents’ craft and independence in creating. Gray sites his father and his father’s studio as a catalyst in his creative career.

“My father was the first person to expose me to Japanese art,” he said. “He would build his own larger than life canvas and paint images of Speed Racer and Lupin the 3rd.”

Kent’s family’s history in fabrics was his jumpstart into understanding design. “My partner Kent’s family has a history of producing fabrics for Kimonos and other Japanese clothing,” said Gray. “His mother has always been influenced by the most flagrant of styles.”

While the trend of urban or skatewear is steadily growing, the authenticity of Gray’s collaboration in the Far East help him, Kent and their brand stand out with the website’s big colors and Japanese characters.

There’s other big plans in the works – including a physical location back in his home city, but you’ll have to stay tuned to OhShit!2099 to find out more. But one thing is for sure – Zirchi and Kent plan to keep the business their own.

“We don’t really have such a strong passion for business as much as creation,” said Gray. As designers we are always building and sharing ideas with artist and designers in Tokyo, NY and VA as well.”

Keep up with their line and purchase products here.

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