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In Richmond Mayor’s Race, Math Matters

Rich Meagher | September 30, 2020

Topics: alexsis rodgers, annexation, Election 2020, Justin Griffin, Kim Gray, Levar Stoney, Richmond city council, Richmond mayoral race, Tracey McLean

Richmond’s mayoral election is more like nine mini-elections, making the path to victory complicated for both incumbent Mayor Levar Stoney and his four challengers. Rich Meagher breaks it down for us.

As Richmond’s mayoral race heats up, it’s worth remembering that this is more than just an election. For incumbent Levar Stoney and his four challengers – Kim Gray, Justin Griffin, Tracey McLean, and Alexsis Rodgers – it’s also a math problem.

What many people don’t realize is that there is not one single mayoral election. Thanks to the city’s arcane election rules, there are actually nine mini-elections, one in each City Council district. To become Mayor, a candidate needs to get a plurality of votes (more than anyone else, not necessarily a majority) in five of the nine districts. If this does not happen, the top two candidates citywide move to a December runoff, where one of them should be able to win the five districts they need.

What’s with the weird election setup? Well, like everything in the former capital of the Confederacy, it’s all about race. 

Richmond has for a long time been a “majority-minority” city, where Blacks outnumber whites. But poverty rates and educational levels work to skew the electorate towards whites. When the current city government structure was set up two decades ago, some were concerned that a citywide election would be dominated by Richmond’s white power structure.

Map of Richmond, with 1970 annexation territory in dark green. By DIT_Richmond, Via Church Hill People’s News.

This was not an idle concern. Richmond actually did not hold elections for much of the 1970s because the federal Department of Justice (DOJ) shut them down. The 1970 annexation of majority-white south side districts from Chesterfield County was rightly interpreted by the DOJ as an attempt to dilute the power of Black voters and maintain white control of the city. The Supreme Court eventually allowed the annexation, but only so long as the city government was divided into districts that protected minority representation.

So when former Governor Doug Wilder and former Mayor Tom Bliley rewrote the city’s charter, they added the “5-of-9” rule to protect Black voters’ voice in determining who leads the city. 

But this rule has many unintended consequences for the 2020 election. Here’s a few:

  • Like the Electoral College nationally, the “5 of 9” rule eliminates the need to win the citywide popular vote. In 2016, Levar Stoney narrowly edged out Jack Berry in overall votes, winning 36 percent to Berry’s 34 percent. But it is entirely possible for a candidate to put together narrow wins in five districts, but lose big in the others, coming in second citywide to another candidate. The popular vote only really matters in determining which two candidates go to a runoff; but even in that runoff, the second place candidate citywide could still take 5 of 9 and become Mayor.
  • The 5 of 9 math creates all kinds of implications for campaign strategy. Rather than trying to win the race outright, the goal for many candidates might be to win a district or two and force a runoff. For example, I would probably handicap Alexsis Rodgers as currently running in third place to Stoney and Gray. But Rodgers could focus her efforts on stealing a district or two, denying the other two a victory; and then use her progressive base to squeak into second place – and the runoff.
  • A runoff election could reset the race entirely. Runoffs are notoriously low-turnout affairs, as voters exhausted by campaigns demonstrate waning interest into the winter. Dedicated core constituencies might matter much more than fundraising or incumbency. Mayor Stoney, who probably has the best shot at winning the November election outright, would surely like to avoid a runoff where his campaign’s advantages are considerably weakened.
  • Multiple candidates complicate the race as well. What if local attorney Justin Griffin and Council member Kim Gray end up competing for votes in the city’s more conservative West End, denying either a shot at the runoff? Griffin and Tracey McLean are probably running considerably behind the other three candidates, but they can still play spoiler by winning a district or at least denying a district to another candidate.
  • Runoffs not only add to election fatigue, but are expensive. (In 2016 the city’s registrar suggested that a runoff might cost the city $160,000.) There’s been a lot of buzz statewide about the possibility of implementing Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), which allows citizens to indicate their preferences among multiple candidates on a single ballot. In an RCV system, if no one wins a plurality, people’s second choices are used to automatically determine a winner without the need for a costly second election. Expect to hear more about RCV in Richmond, especially if we do go end up with a runoff this year.

Behind all of these permutations is, ironically, the question of legitimacy. The current system was put in place to counter a rigged history that favored white interests at the expense of minority rights. But in order to ensure a fully participatory system, we may end up with a leader who lacks a popular mandate. A mayor who does not command a majority – or, as I suggest above, might have been elected without even a plurality – could have trouble getting the city to support their policies.

Mayor Levar Stoney

Levar Stoney, who came out of a give-way race in 2016 with barely a third of the vote, certainly has been criticized; but the legitimacy concern has not dogged him as much as it might have seemed after his election. Still, his lack of a mandate might finally be catching up to him. If Stoney loses this election, it is likely because his advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and powerful friends in city and state government still could not generate enough support in the electorate. If he does lose, maybe his real problem was that he never had that many supporters to begin with.

Top Photo by STEPHEN POORE on Unsplash

LGBTQ Victory Fund Endorses Richmond Mayoral Candidate Alexsis Rodgers

Greta Timmins | September 2, 2020

Topics: alexsis rodgers, Election 2020, LGBTQ representation, LGBTQ Victory Fund, Richmond mayoral race

The LGBTQ Victory Fund is backing Alexsis Rodgers in the 2020 Richmond mayoral race. If elected, Rodgers will become both the first woman and the first openly LGBTQ person to serve as Richmond’s mayor.

Richmond’s four-way race to determine who will become the city’s next mayor has been heating up ever since the summer began. Now, in a new development sure to interest the city’s LGBTQ community, the LGBTQ Victory Fund has endorsed Richmond mayoral candidate Alexsis Rodgers. 

“This is a huge boost for our campaign, because their endorsement is a seal of approval and shows we are on track to win,” Rodgers said in a statement. “Victory Fund only endorses candidates who will be strong voices for equality and who prove they are building a campaign that is heading toward victory.”

LGBTQ Victory Fund, founded in 1991, helps support openly LGBTQ candidates for public office. In the past, they have backed Danica Roem, who represents Prince William County in the Virginia House of Delegates and in 2017 became America’s first transgender person elected to statewide political office; and Dawn Adams, an openly gay delegate who represents Richmond’s West End in the Virginia House of Delegates. Sean Meloy, the LGBTQ Victory Fund’s senior political director, called the group’s endorsement a “powerful statement of your campaign’s viability.” 

If elected, Rodgers will be the first openly LGBTQ mayor of Richmond, and the first woman elected to the seat. 

“LGBTQ people are 4.5 percent of the U.S. population but hold only 0.15 percent of elected positions nationwide. We need more diverse voices in office – people that will fight for everyone – and I am determined to be that voice,” Rodgers said. “When elected, I’ll fight for equality, affordable housing, environmental protections, and other issues important to our community.”

Rodgers helps with a cleanup along the Richmond Slave Trail. Photo via Alexsis Rodgers/Facebook

Rodgers has a history of advocating for the Black LGBTQ community in Richmond, receiving the 2020 Rodney Lofton Social Justice award from Black Pride RVA for her work in the community. She also is known for fighting for health care access, labor and housing rights, and workplace protections for LGBTQ people across Virginia. 

“I am humbled to receive the endorsement of Victory Fund and will continue to advance progressive policies that will uplift queer people in Richmond,” said Rodgers. 

Rodgers is also endorsed by Run for Something, Our Revolution RVA, Generation Ratify VA, and many community leaders, Virginia elected officials, and business owners. She hopes her election will allow her to advocate for underrepresented groups. 

“We will continue to see disparities and discriminatory practices in our institutions and communities if we don’t address the inequality of power,” Rodgers said. “The current Black Lives Matter movement and mobilization to dismantle oppressive policies are led by Black and brown and queer and trans women, yet we see little gain for these communities. It’s imperative that we center and advocate for underrepresented groups in a transformative way.”

Top Photo by Shawnee Custalow, via Alexsis Rodgers/Facebook

It’s On: Richmond’s Next Mayor Must Deal With A Changing City

Rich Meagher | March 9, 2020

Topics: Arthur Ashe Boulevard, Democratic Party of Virginia, Election 2020, Justin Griffin, Kim Gray, Levar Stoney, Navy Hill, Paul Goldman, Richmond city council, Richmond For All, Richmond mayoral race, RVA Dirt, Terry McAuliffe

While the presidential election remains at the forefront of news coverage, Rich Meagher reminds us that for Richmonders, the most important election of 2020 might be that of the city’s next mayor.

Everything is politics these days. Thanks to the Democratic Party’s takeover of the state legislature, we’ve seen more laws than we can follow. Super Tuesday brought a gaggle of Presidential candidates to Virginia, and helped reset the race for the Democratic nomination. Richmonders might not have had time to catch their breath, let alone think about what might be the most important political question this year:

Who will be Richmond’s next Mayor?

Second District Councilwoman Kim Gray made her long-rumored campaign official when she announced her candidacy on Sunday. Local lawyer Justin Griffin, who was a vocal critic of the recent Navy Hill arena development plan, is “exploring” a run. And at least according to one report, another Navy Hill critic, longtime political operator Paul Goldman, is collecting signatures as well. Others may step up before the June 9 filing deadline. And then of course there’s the incumbent, Levar Stoney, who will certainly run for a second term.

All of these candidates will have to reckon with a city that is, in many ways, transforming before our eyes. The same old political formations exist, but they are overlaid with new power sources and new voices.

The Mayor just learned this lesson the hard way, with the aforementioned two words he is bound to hear a lot this fall on the campaign trail: Navy Hill.

The downtown development plan was supposed to restore the eponymous neighborhood to its former glory, as well as to help secure for Stoney a second term and a political future. Instead Navy Hill was blocked by a coalition of City Council members, including the Mayor’s now-opponent Kim Gray.

The Richmond Coliseum, which sits at the center of the proposed Navy Hill development. Photo by Jimmy O’Keefe

The Mayor and the plan’s developers tried to force Navy Hill through in the same way that these development plans have always worked in the past. First you bring city elites on board – not just the Mayor, but familiar white business leaders (Tom Farrell, Bill Goodwin, C.T. Hill, Marty Barrington). You recruit support from black political leaders like former Council President Michelle Mosby, and enlist respected local non-profits like the Better Housing Coalition. You leverage these folks (and your tremendous wealth) to put pressure on City Council from above and below. Political scientists call this “growth machine” politics, and it typically gets your plan through.

Only this time it didn’t work.

The city has changed, and not just in the number of beer bros and tattoos. There is a new political class forming in the city – younger, with varied influences.

We saw the first obvious signs of this change when the city’s Democratic organization was forced by the state party to throw out its election results. J.J. Minor, a longtime power broker in the city, was forced out in favor of new blood. (Minor, the son of state legislator Dolores McQuinn, is a key Stoney ally and stumped hard for Navy Hill.)

More recently, opposition to Navy Hill, public housing “reform,” and other city policies led to the formation of Richmond for All, a biracial coalition including prominent voices like WRIR radio host Chelsea Higgs Wise and School Board member Kenya Gibson. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), energized nationally by the Bernie Sanders campaign, have a vocal city chapter centered on VCU. A cadre of young citizen watchdogs, led by Francesca Leigh-Davis and Melissa Vaughan of RVADirt, live-tweet public meetings and share information.

A special election for the City Council’s 5th district seat last year featured some of these new voices. The district’s voters rejected older faces like former Council member Chuck Richardson and former Stoney advisor Thad Williamson in favor of millennial Stephanie Lynch. Former VCU DSA head Nick Da Silva also won significant support. It’s not exactly “a little child shall lead them,” but the city seems to want something new.

Now this November’s election looms over this changing political landscape.

Mayor Stoney has to try to mobilize citizens to keep him in office, and yet many voters were alienated by his two-year adventure with the Navy Hill developers. He has a number of other accomplishments he can run on, despite Navy Hill’s implosion. He had a lot to talk about in his state of the city address earlier this year, for example, including new aftercare programs for city kids and school construction.

Stoney reminded us of his powerful friends this past week as he appeared with former Governor Terry McAuliffe to endorse Joe Biden ahead of Virginia’s presidential primary. Stoney even had a fun viral moment when he and his mentor were trapped in an elevator for 30 minutes. (Trapped in an enclosed space with T-Mac: the worst nightmare of every Virginia Republican… and more than a few Democrats.)

But statewide Democratic officials are not city voters. Stoney will certainly retain the relentless positivity that is his trademark, but can his formidable skills and backing overcome the noise from his failed development plan?

Councilwoman Gray has her own baggage, particularly with what some critics think is an abrasive personality and an inconsistent voting record where her wealthy Second District constituents are concerned. These criticisms should be blunted by her lead role in the “Gang of 5” opposition to Navy Hill, as well as her successful efforts to push through the renaming of Arthur Ashe Boulevard. 

Photo via Arthur Ashe Boulevard Initiative/Facebook

Griffin is more of a wildcard. His principled opposition to Navy Hill made him a frequent presence in various media, social and otherwise, over the past year, and he seems to want to parlay a brand of common sense criticism into the Mayor’s office. But he’ll need more than complaints about city services to overcome both Gray and Stoney’s considerable advantages as incumbent public officials.

One thing Navy Hill’s failure has demonstrated is clear: the path to victory, as well as the way forward in governing the city, is much harder than it used to be. New forces are challenging Richmond’s old power structure, and anyone who wants to be Mayor should plan accordingly.

Top Image: Levar Stoney, photo via Facebook; Kim Gray, photo via Facebook; Justin Griffin, photo via Facebook; Paul Goldman, photo via Twitter

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